Fred Jenson wrote me a delightful e-mail about my paper on false excuses. He said:
There are only two excuses and they cover every stupid thing you (and I) have
ever done in our lives.1. It seemed like a good idea at the time.
2. I forgot.I have yet to find a screw up that one of these doesn’t cover.
Sounds about right to me!
Finally! The fire map current as of yesterday evening has arrived:
I love the Independence Institute’s e-mail newsletter. Why? It’s funny! Here’s the opening to their latest one:
It is my sad duty to report that our Independence Institute Senior Fellow Charles King came in second place in the “men’s over 80-year-old” category of the Bolder Boulder, Boulder Colorado’s Memorial Day’s marathon. That type of slack-ass behavior is not what we expect from a member of our team. He will do better next year, or we’ll can him. As for me, I was not allowed to compete in the race because they said it was against the rules to drive. Socialist bastards.Speaking of socialists, in my Sunday column for the Boulder Daily Camera, I examined Boulder plan to limit jobs for the perfect jobs to population ratio. You really have to read this!
Forget the aussie! I’m just soooo international these days…
Before the wildfire came along, I was wondering how to increase traffic to the blog. Now I know. :-/
A number of concerned friends have e-mailed me in the past few days about my presence at upcoming Summer Seminar of The Objectivist Center, given that the Hayman fire still threatens home and hearth. Given my presentation schedule, after all, I expect that my absence would be rather problematic. I am slated to present my paper on false excuses at the Advanced Seminar that runs from June 26th to June 29th. At the regular seminar from June 29 to July 6, I am giving the six-lecture introductory course on Objectivism entitled Objectivism 101, as well as a single lecture on honesty entitled White Lies, Black Lies. Oh, and of course, Paul is slated to (merely) attend the regular seminar too.
But don’t worry, I’ll be there! Paul and I will be more or less evacuating while we are gone, in case the fire does head northeast while we’re gone. Our essential stuff (now packed in our vehicles) will be moved into storage. The horses will remain with the ever-generous Mike Paul until we return. Our usual and wonderful neighborhood housesitter will stay at our house to take care of the dogs and cats, ready to evacuate them to the Buddy Center of the Denver Dumb Friends League if needed.
Frankly, it will be nice to be away for a while. The need to stay tethered close to home, religiously watching the news three times a day, constantly focusing on about even small shifts in the weather outside, alternating between irrational hope and irrational despair, and mostly just waiting for the real emergency to finally materialize has been exhausting. I’m very pleased that I’ll be able to leave town knowing that everything important has already been arranged.
Also, I expect that attending the TOC Seminar will sooth my intense aggravation of being forced to miss the much-looked-forward-to IHS Social Change Workshop going on right now. I haven’t been able to read The Volkh Conspiracy these past few days, due to blinding envy upon reading posts from Sasha like this one.
So don’t worry guys, we’ll be there, come (literally) hell or high water!
Update: Due to serious philosophic and moral objections, I am no longer associated with The Objectivist Center in any way, shape, or form. My reasons why can be found on my web page on The Many False Friends of Objectivism.
Thanks to Tim Blair, I’ve been designated a “firegal”! Sounds like a good superhero name to me! 
At the informational meeting on the Hayman Fire tonight, Ron Raley was back providing updates on the fire. (Two days ago, his deputy was at the meeting instead. He was also very informed and very informative.) Raley said that the fire has now grown to about 137,000 acres.
In Raley’s words, the weather has been “absolutely horrendous” for the past few days, particularly yesterday. The high temperatures and low humidity that made yesterday brutal for the firefighters were, thankfully, a little more moderate today. (Also the fire mostly pushed a bit south and east towards Woodland Park today.)
Raley said that the fuel conditions in this fire were “the worst conditions that [he's] ever seen,” due to the low humidity present in the large quantity of fuels. We can thank this year’s drought for that.
The (4-6 foot hand) lines have held on the north and south sides of the fire (except for a break-out around “L”), but the east side of the fire is out of control. That east side did go through Westcreek yesterday. Many structures were burned, but many were saved. The fire did also cross Highway 67 in that area.
The most pressing danger for those of us north of the fire is that the out-of-control eastern edge may continue to move east, then turn northward towards various subdivisions like Perry Park. (The northernmost “U” and southernmost “W” bits of that eastern edge are of greatest concern in terms of break-out potential.) Raley said that under adverse weather conditions, the fire could reach Perry Park in 9-10 hours from its present position.
To address that risk, Raley said that firefighters are trying to pinch off the north side of that edge of the fire. There are also large contingency lines going in along Rampart Ridge to prevent the fire from moving towards those communities.
Here’s the map posted at the meeting, current as of this afternoon. Once again, we are near the bright green dot to the northeast of the fire.
Sergeant Dennis of the Douglas County Sheriff, who was also at the meeting two days ago, gave the news regarding Douglas County evacuations. The most interesting tidbit from him was that he was an advocate of returning people to their homes around areas northeast of the fire (“N”) where the line has held for many days — until the fire update meeting tonight.
There, he learned that the fire has a much greater potential to get out-of-control than he previously thought. In particular, the fire could encircle those neighborhoods (like Nighthawk) and then burn back on itself, thereby trapping any residents that were permitted to reoccupy their homes. After learning that, he could no longer in good conscience advocate returning people to their homes.
The third person to speak was Randy Hickenbottom, District Ranger for the South Platte Ranger District of the Forest Service. He presented some rather interesting information on the serious danger of flooding in the coming weeks and months in the burned areas. He said that 50-60% of the fire area has been intensively burned, meaning reduced to mineral soil and blackened sticks of tree trunks. In other words, over 60,000 acres in a serious watershed area have lost all erosion control. A heavy rain could cause flooding and mudslides, thereby threatening both life and property, even after the fire has been put out. Yikes!
So yet another informative meeting.
The best news of the evening is that on the drive home, I was driving through real rain! The storm looked to be mostly south, over the fire. There was lots of lightening, but also enough rain to keep my windshield wipers on low for the last seven minutes of my drive home. The rain seems to have stopped for now and the weather report indicates that the storm has moved on. Any little bit of wet is wonderful news!
This Yahoo News story indicates that Perry Park faces a particularly grave threat:
Officials were particularly concerned about Perry Park, a subdivision in a canyon in Douglas County. “If the fire gets into that area, those canyons act like a chimney,” Colwell said. “Winds are still the wild card.”
Oh dear. Let’s hope it doesn’t get that far. Perry Park is a pretty big subdivision.
Our neighborhood, Indian Creek Ranch, is fairly hilly, but I’m not really sure how it compares to Perry Park. My vague recollection is that Perry Park is both hillier and more densely covered with scrub oak than here. Thankfully, we do have an excellent buffer between us and Pike National Forest in the form of a large ranch consisting mostly of grassland. But I believe that there are continuous and dense lines of trees from the forest straight through our neighborhood, along Rainbow Creek and Indian Creek.
So here’s the latest map, current as of yesterday evening. It’s clear that the fire has grown a great deal towards the east, particularly in comparison with the maps from previous days that I’ve posted.
We are more-or-less at the bright green “67″ sign. Looking at this map, it’s very clear that a south or southwestern wind could blow that out of control eastern edge of the fire back up towards us. Yikes.
The Hayman fire is now estimated to have burned 135,889 acres. According to the noon news, the fire is burning one mile from Rampart Range Road, a trigger point for evacuation of some of the towns southeast of the fire. Fire crews have been pulled off of the north side of the fire to help out those battling the more active eastern edge. Also, another Type I team has been added, bringing the total up to three now. (I understand that just having two Type I teams on one fire was pretty unprecedented.)
Thankfully, winds are calm and the air is fairly clear here, which is good news for us!
The Douglas County web site hasn’t been updated since last night. Augh. But looking at the evacuation page most locations listed have now been evacuated.
